Collective Mining Ltd.

Name: CNL Verdict Framework Scorecard — WATCH
Item: Collective Mining Ltd.
Rating: 18
Author: Mining Stock Report

WATCH

TSX · Gold · Scored Apr 15, 2026

Composite Score 18/25

Management Skin-in-the-Game

5/5

The management pedigree at Collective Mining is among the strongest in junior gold exploration. Executive Chairman Ari Sussman founded Continental Gold, raised nearly C$1 billion, discovered 11 million ounces of high-grade gold at the Buriticá project in Colombia, and sold the company to Zijin Mining in 2020 for approximately C$2 billion. He has directly reassembled key members of that same team to execute the same playbook at Guayabales. This is a serial value-creator with proven Colombian execution.

CEO Ned Jalil (appointed April 2025) brings 25+ years of global mining experience from Kinross Gold and Appian Capital. As CTO at Kinross, he delivered a 5-million-ounce initial resource at the Great Bear project — directly relevant credentials for the Apollo system delineation task ahead. President Omar Ossma handles Colombian operations, providing continuity with Continental Gold's in-country experience.

Insider alignment is exceptional. Ari Sussman alone holds approximately 11.6% of shares outstanding (6.9M directly + 3.5M via Lion Investments LLC). Combined management, insiders, family, and friends collectively hold approximately 31–35% of the company, and Agnico Eagle — one of the world's most disciplined major gold miners — holds approximately 14.99% following a C$63.4M strategic investment in March 2025. This is one of the strongest combined management track record + insider alignment profiles in the junior space.

Project Geology Quality

2/5

Collective Mining does not yet have a NI 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate for the Apollo system — its flagship deposit at the Guayabales project, Caldas, Colombia. The December 2025 NI 43-101 technical report (effective date September 15, 2025, QP: Stewart D. Redwood) is an exploration-stage document that describes geological data and drill results but does not classify Measured, Indicated, or Inferred resources. The maiden resource estimate for Apollo is targeted for Q4 2026. No PEA, PFS, or Feasibility Study exists or can exist before a resource is defined.

That said, the drill-hole quality is exceptional and the scale potential is credible. As of April 2026, approximately 167,500 metres of diamond drilling have been completed across Guayabales and San Antonio, including over 110,000 metres at Apollo alone. Mineralization is continuous from surface to 1,450+ metres vertical depth. The March 2026 Ramp Zone intercept — 83.75m at 21.14 g/t gold (including 20.80m at 51.36 g/t and a 1.15m bonanza sample at 734 g/t) at 1,355 metres below surface — demonstrates an extraordinarily high-grade core at depth.

The geology score of 2 reflects the absence of a classified resource estimate per the scoring framework criteria. Inferred resources are the minimum classification required for a score of 2 or above — Collective is pre-resource, drilling into what management and sell-side analysts target as a 10+ million AuEq oz system. Investors are betting on management's geological interpretation, not a defined resource.

Capital Structure Health

5/5

The capital structure is one of the cleanest among large-cap junior explorers on the TSXV. As of December 31, 2025, there were 92,537,998 common shares issued and outstanding — a relatively tight float given the scale of the asset. The October 2025 C$140M concurrent financing (6.6M shares at C$19.00 via bought deal + 789,473 shares to Agnico Eagle in a private placement) was significantly oversubscribed and priced at a premium, confirming institutional demand.

The treasury is substantial and fully funds the 2026 program. As of December 1, 2025, Collective held US$135 million in cash — sufficient to execute the entire 80,000 to 100,000 metre, up to 14-rig 2026 drill program and fund exploration adit construction planned for Q4 2026. There is no debt. The Agnico Eagle warrant overhang was eliminated in March 2025 when Agnico exercised all 2,250,000 warrants at C$5.01, contributing C$11.3M to treasury. The company is in the GDXJ index as of March 2026 and the MSCI Canada Small Cap Index, improving liquidity and enabling index-driven buying. This is a maximum capital score: no debt, US$135M cash, tight share count, no warrant overhang.

Catalyst Proximity

4/5

Catalyst density is high and near-term. The 2026 drill program of 80,000–100,000 metres with up to 14 rigs running generates near-continuous assay results. The March 29, 2026 release (83.75m at 21.14 g/t gold from the Ramp Zone) is the company's highest-grade intercept to date and confirms a high-grade core system at depth. Multiple holes remain pending assay as of mid-April 2026.

The maiden NI 43-101 resource estimate for Apollo is targeted for Q4 2026. This is the single most value-inflecting catalyst in the company's near-term history and will establish Collective as a resource company — not merely a drill play — for the first time. Exploration adit construction is slated to begin Q4 2026, which will accelerate underground definition drilling of the Trap System. The AGM is scheduled for June 15, 2026. Score of 4 rather than 5 because the resource estimate — the transformative de-risking event — remains approximately 6–9 months away rather than imminent, and pending assay releases from 14 active rigs provide continuous but not binary near-term newsflow.

Comparable Acquisition Value

2/5

A formal NAV calculation cannot be derived without a PEA or resource estimate — neither exists as of April 2026. The scoring framework's PEA/PFS/FS discount methodology cannot be applied. At approximately US$18.24/share (NYSE; ~C$25.00 at 1.37 CAD/USD) and ~92.5M shares outstanding, the market cap is roughly US$1.69B (C$2.3B). With US$135M cash, the enterprise value is approximately US$1.55B. If Apollo ultimately yields 10M AuEq ounces, the market is implicitly pricing the resource at approximately US$155/oz in-the-ground at the exploration stage — elevated but defensible given the gold price environment (~US$4,800/oz) and the Continental Gold precedent (C$2B on 11M oz at PFS/construction stage).

The legal risk from Morpheus Research (August 2025 short report alleging 93% of NAV at risk from title issues) has been substantially addressed — the company secured 100% of mining title (June 2025) and all required surface rights for a future mining operation (US$44M deal, March 2026). Class action investigations remain open as of April 2026 but no formal suit has been filed. Score of 2: no resource or economic study to anchor acquisition value; current EV is a bet on management's geological interpretation and execution. A Q4 2026 resource filing would re-rate this factor immediately.

Analyst Summary

Collective Mining (CNL) is a pre-resource explorer with exceptional drill results, a proven management team, a fully funded treasury, and a realistic path to a transformative NI 43-101 resource estimate in Q4 2026. The company scores 18/25 (WATCH), held back primarily by the absence of any classified Measured, Indicated, or Inferred resource — Apollo is exploration-stage only with a maiden resource targeted at 10+ million AuEq oz for Q4 2026.

The management score of 5 is fully justified: Ari Sussman literally built and sold the last significant Colombian gold discovery (Continental Gold / Buriticá, C$2B to Zijin). CEO Ned Jalil delivered the Great Bear resource at Kinross. Insider ownership of 31–35% plus a 14.99% Agnico Eagle strategic stake provides alignment and institutional endorsement rarely seen at this stage. The capital structure is unusually clean — US$135M cash, no debt, ~92.5M tight shares, no warrant overhang. The March 2026 Ramp Zone intercept (83.75m at 21.14 g/t gold at 1,355m depth) confirms a high-grade core system that was not fully anticipated in early models.

The dominant risk is the Morpheus Research short thesis (August 2025), which triggered securities class action investigations that remain open. The company's response has been substantive — mining title secured (June 2025), all surface rights locked up (US$44M, March 2026). No formal class action filed as of April 15, 2026. At gold near US$4,800/oz, the macro environment is the most constructive for Colombian gold exploration in over a decade. WATCH: the reward potential is outsized but the absence of a resource means retail investors are betting on management execution and geological interpretation. Revisit immediately when the Q4 2026 resource estimate is published.

Company

Exchange / Ticker: TSX:CNL
Jurisdiction: Colombia
Primary Commodity: Gold
Website: https://collectivemining.com

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