What a catalyst score actually measures
The catalyst factor of the Verdict Framework scores the proximity of the next material news event that can move a company's share price. Materiality is defined by the framework itself: drill results that could define or expand a resource, resource estimates and updates, preliminary economic assessments (PEA), pre-feasibility studies (PFS), feasibility studies (FS), permit decisions, offtake agreements, and strategic financings. Routine quarterly updates and press releases that don't change the underlying technical case do not count.
A 5/5 catalyst score means the next material event is within 12 months — typically within 6 months — and is credibly signposted by management guidance or clearly implied by the work program. A 4/5 score widens the window to 12–18 months or reflects a multi-milestone program where the catalyst density is high without any single event dominating.
Why catalyst-heavy names are not for everyone
Catalysts are bidirectional. A 5/5 catalyst score tells you the next event is close. It does not tell you whether that event will be positive. The worst outcomes in junior mining — short-term 50%+ drawdowns on well-owned names — almost always follow a missed or disappointing catalyst, not a permitting delay or a macro event. Size catalyst-heavy positions smaller than balance-sheet or geology-anchored positions for this reason.
A useful rule of thumb: double the position size you'd own on a 3/5 catalyst name (background newsflow only) should probably be halved on a 5/5 catalyst name (imminent binary). The expected value can be the same; the path to realising it is wider.
Catalyst type matters
Not all catalysts carry equal weight. Ranked roughly by materiality:
- Feasibility study — the most material catalyst a developer can deliver. A positive FS establishes project economics and unlocks the financing path to production.
- Resource update — a new NI 43-101 resource estimate that expands tonnes or grade (or reclassifies ounces from inferred to indicated) materially re-prices the asset.
- PEA / PFS — preliminary and pre-feasibility studies rank below FS but still shift the NPV and sensitivity math that drives P/NAV calculations.
- Drill results — high-impact drill results (especially step-out holes on virgin ground or infill on well-understood systems) can move share prices 20–40% in a day.
- Permit decisions — slow, binary, and materially important for developers. A positive permit decision can re-rate a project by the full permitting-risk discount.
- Offtake / strategic investment — validation events that signal industrial demand or major-company interest.
How the list evolves
Catalyst scores naturally decay. A 5/5 today is often a 3/5 in six months because the catalyst has been delivered and the next material event is further out. Expect this list to turn over almost completely every two quarters.