Jurisdiction Risk Scores
Where a deposit sits on the map matters as much as what's in the ground. Every jurisdiction we cover is scored on five factors — permitting predictability, fiscal regime stability, political & security risk, infrastructure, and community/ESG complexity. One clear risk label: LOW, MODERATE, ELEVATED, HIGH, or EXTREME.
How the Score is Built
Each jurisdiction gets five sub-scores from 1 (worst) to 5 (best), summed into a composite of 5–25. The composite drives a risk label. Inputs include the Fraser Institute Annual Survey of Mining Companies, the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, recent permitting outcomes, and any material change in royalty or tax regime over the past 24 months. We re-assess annually and after any election or major legislative change.
The Five Factors
- Permitting — predictability and timeline from discovery to mine.
- Fiscal regime — royalty & tax stability; surprise changes penalized.
- Political & security — rule of law, expropriation risk, conflict.
- Infrastructure — road, rail, power, water, port access.
- Community & ESG — Indigenous consultation framework, social licence.
| Jurisdiction | Country | Perm | Fisc | Pol | Infra | ESG | Composite | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Argentina | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14/25 | Elevated Risk |
| New South Wales (State) | Australia | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 19/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Northern Territory (Territory) | Australia | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Queensland (State) | Australia | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Western Australia (State) | Australia | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Brazil | Brazil | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Burkina Faso | Burkina Faso | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8/25 | High Risk |
| British Columbia (Province) | Canada | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Newfoundland and Labrador (Province) | Canada | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Northwest Territories (Territory) | Canada | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Nunavut (Territory) | Canada | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Ontario (Province) | Canada | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 20/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Quebec (Province) | Canada | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Saskatchewan (Province) | Canada | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 23/25 | Low Risk |
| Yukon (Territory) | Canada | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Chile | Chile | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Colombia | Colombia | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12/25 | High Risk |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6/25 | Extreme Risk |
| Ecuador | Ecuador | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12/25 | High Risk |
| Finland | Finland | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 22/25 | Low Risk |
| Ghana | Ghana | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Guyana | Guyana | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Mali | Mali | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5/25 | Extreme Risk |
| Chihuahua (State) | Mexico | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Durango (State) | Mexico | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11/25 | High Risk |
| Guerrero (State) | Mexico | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8/25 | High Risk |
| Oaxaca (State) | Mexico | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8/25 | High Risk |
| San Luis Potosí (State) | Mexico | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Sinaloa (State) | Mexico | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9/25 | High Risk |
| Sonora (State) | Mexico | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Zacatecas (State) | Mexico | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Mongolia | Mongolia | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12/25 | High Risk |
| Peru | Peru | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12/25 | High Risk |
| South Africa | South Africa | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11/25 | High Risk |
| Tanzania | Tanzania | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11/25 | High Risk |
| Alaska (State) | United States | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16/25 | Elevated Risk |
| Arizona (State) | United States | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Idaho (State) | United States | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20/25 | Moderate Risk |
| Nevada (State) | United States | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 23/25 | Low Risk |
| Utah (State) | United States | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22/25 | Low Risk |
Higher composite = lower risk. 22–25 LOW · 18–21 MODERATE · 13–17 ELEVATED · 8–12 HIGH · 5–7 EXTREME.