Almonty Industries Inc.

Name: AII Verdict Framework Scorecard — WATCH
Item: Almonty Industries Inc.
Rating: 19
Author: Mining Stock Report

WATCH

TSX · Tungsten · Scored May 4, 2026

Composite Score 19/25

Management Skin-in-the-Game

4/5

Lewis Black is the founder-CEO with approximately 11.91% of shares outstanding — exceptional founder alignment for a company at this scale. Plansee Group (~14%, the world's largest tungsten powder processor and offtake partner) and Deutsche Rohstoff AG (~7.97%) provide institutional alignment; combined insider/strategic ownership exceeds 34%. Board reinforced in 2025 with retired U.S. General Gustave Perna (March 2025) and former senior U.S. DoD official Alan Estevez (May 2025), reinforcing the defense contract strategy. CEO publicly bought shares at ~C$2.17 in March 2025. New CFO Brian Fox (August 2025, ex-CBIZ Marks Paneth) replaced long-tenured Mark Gelmon smoothly. Deduction from a 5: two large public offerings in 2025 (US$219M+ combined) were materially dilutive even if strategically necessary, and the 1-for-1.5 share consolidation in July 2025 required to achieve Nasdaq listing is a cosmetic negative. Track record: built from a shell in 2011 to the West's most important tungsten producer.

Project Geology Quality

5/5

Sangdong is the world's largest known tungsten deposit outside China. NI 43-101 Technical Report (effective Feb 28, 2025; filed June 23, 2025, author Adam Wheeler C.Eng.): Probable Reserves 8,579 kt at 0.42% WO3; M+I Resources (inclusive of reserves) ~8,029 kt at 0.51% WO3; Inferred Resources 50,686 kt at 0.43% WO3 — supporting a 45+ year mine life. Grade of ~0.51% WO3 is approximately 3x the global average for operating tungsten mines. The deposit is a stratabound scheelite body with well-understood geology, historically mined until 1992 (closed on low tungsten prices, not resource depletion). Phase 1 (640,000 t/yr ore throughput, targeting ~2,300 t/yr concentrate at 65% WO3) commenced commercial mining December 2025 and completed Phase 1 commissioning March 2026 — confirming resource estimates translate to operational reality. Adjacent Sangdong molybdenum deposit (120 Mt at 0.13% MoS2; higher-grade zone 16 Mt at 0.4% MoS2) is a substantial unpriced bonus with large-scale drilling commenced in 2025.

Capital Structure Health

3/5

Post-1.5:1 consolidation shares outstanding approximately 262,776,200 with a fully diluted count of approximately 271,400,000. The current dilutive overhang is modest: 1,481,480 share purchase warrants (CAD, ~C$1.14 strike, ~Jan 2028 expiry; converted from AUD per Sept 2025 shareholder vote) plus 6,558,336 CDI options at various strikes/expiries. The 700,000 insider warrants (C$0.75 strike, Lewis Black and Thomas Gutschlag) expired February 19, 2026 and were almost certainly exercised given the stock's trading range well above that level. Balance sheet is fortress-grade: $268.4M cash as of December 31, 2025 against $75.1M KfW IPEX-Bank project loan (SOFR+2.4%, fully drawn). The capital score is held to 3 rather than 4 by the dilutive history: two equity offerings in 2025 added approximately 43.7M post-consolidation shares (~22% dilution in H2 2025 alone), and the share count grew approximately 51% in the year prior to consolidation. The raises were justified (funding Sangdong construction), but the pattern is established.

Catalyst Proximity

5/5

Q1 2026 financial results scheduled May 21, 2026 — 17 days from today and the single most anticipated event in the stock's history: first quarterly data to contain actual Sangdong production tonnage, recoveries, and revenue since the mill began processing ore in early April 2026. This is the first objective check on whether the ramp-up is tracking the 640,000 t/yr Phase 1 design capacity. U.S. DoD procurement ban on tungsten sourced from non-allied nations takes effect January 2027 — a permanent structural demand driver that gives Almonty captive access to the largest single tungsten buyer in the West. Gentung Browns Lake (Montana, acquired November 2025 for US$9.75M) targets H2 2026 first production, making Almonty the first U.S. domestic tungsten producer in over a decade. Phase 2 FID is possible in H2 2026 if Phase 1 ramp-up data is strong (doubling capacity to 1.2 Mt/yr, ~4,600 t/yr concentrate). Tungsten APT spot prices rose from US$1,944/MTU (Feb 2025) to US$2,526/MTU (April 2026) as Chinese exports collapsed from 782 t (full-year 2024) toward zero — the price tailwind is active and self-reinforcing. 15-year offtake with Plansee/GTP in place at US$235/MTU floor.

Comparable Acquisition Value

2/5

Market cap of approximately C$7.35–7.80B at ~C$28/share on ~262.8M shares (early May 2026). FY2025 revenue was $32.5M — a price/revenue multiple of approximately 230x. Eight analysts all rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, but the consensus average target price of approximately USD$18.38 is below the current trading price; GBC AG targets USD$20.89, DA Davidson USD$25.00, Bank of America USD$20.00, Cantor Fitzgerald USD$25.80 — all at or below current levels. At full Phase 1 production, annualized revenue could reach approximately US$260–500M depending on whether offtake is priced at the floor or near spot APT prices. Even at US$500M annualized revenue, the current market cap implies ~15x EV/forward revenue — rich for a single-mine producer. The company justifiably commands a strategic-mineral monopoly premium as the only material Western tungsten producer, but the stock has appreciated approximately 2,000% in 12 months from C$1.36 (Dec 2024) to ~C$28, pricing in flawless Phase 1 ramp-up and Phase 2 execution at elevated APT prices. No formal NAV per share has been published by the company or its advisors. Acquisition score would be higher with actual production data confirming the ramp-up thesis.

Analyst Summary

Almonty Industries is the most strategically important Western tungsten company in existence — the Sangdong mine is now in commercial production (Phase 1 commissioning completed March 2026) and sits atop the world's largest known tungsten deposit outside China, with 50+ Mt inferred at approximately 3x the global average grade and a 45+ year mine life. The structural backdrop is unambiguous: China has essentially halted tungsten exports, the U.S. DoD is banning non-allied tungsten purchases effective January 2027, and Almonty holds a binding 15-year offtake with Plansee at a floor price of US$235/MTU. Founder-CEO Lewis Black owns approximately 12% and has led the company for 14 years; the treasury holds US$268M in cash. Q1 2026 production results release May 21 is the first real-world validation of whether the Phase 1 ramp-up is tracking design capacity — this is the report that will confirm or complicate the thesis. The constraint is entirely valuation: C$7–8B market cap on $32.5M trailing revenue (230x) prices in perfect execution across Phase 1, Phase 2, Montana, and sustained elevated APT prices. All eight covering analysts are bullish, but consensus price targets are at or below the current price. Investors who missed the entry below C$5 are best served waiting for May 21 production data before committing capital at current levels.

Cap Table & Overhang Analysis at C$27.9700

Basic Shares

262,776,200

TSM Diluted (at scoring)

264,197,297

Net New Shares

1,421,097

Dilution %

0.5%

Warrants outstanding	1,481,480
— weighted avg strike	C$1.14
Options outstanding	6,558,336

ITM at scoring price	1,481,480
Cash from full ITM exercise	C$1,688,887
Reported fully diluted	271,400,000

Dilution Sensitivity

Scenario	Price	ITM Count	Net New	TSM Diluted	Dilution %
0.5x	C$13.9850	1,481,480	1,360,715	264,136,915	0.5%
1.0x scoring	C$27.9700	1,481,480	1,421,097	264,197,297	0.5%
1.5x	C$41.9550	1,481,480	1,441,225	264,217,425	0.5%
2.0x	C$55.9400	1,481,480	1,451,288	264,227,488	0.6%
3.0x	C$83.9100	1,481,480	1,461,352	264,237,552	0.6%

Treasury Stock Method: at each scenario price, in-the-money warrants and options are assumed exercised, with proceeds applied to repurchase shares at that same price. Net new shares = ITM count minus repurchased shares. Dilution % is net new shares as a percent of basic. Near-expiry threshold is 12 months from the scoring date.

Resources & Reserves

Indicated 8,029 kt @ 0.51% WO3 M+I incl. reserves (Sangdong; NI 43-101 eff. Feb 28, 2025)

Inferred 50,686 kt @ 0.43% WO3 (Sangdong; NI 43-101 eff. Feb 28, 2025)

Probable 8,579 kt @ 0.42% WO3 (Sangdong; NI 43-101 eff. Feb 28, 2025)

Share Structure

Issued & Outstanding 262,776,200

Fully Diluted 271,400,000

Warrants & Options

Type	Count	Strike	Expiry
Option	6,558,336	—	—
CDI options; various strike prices and expiries; AUD-to-CAD currency conversion approved Sept 2025
Warrant	1,481,480	C$1.14	Jan 2028
Share purchase warrants (CAD-denominated per Sept 2025 shareholder vote; formerly AUD-denominated)

Company

Exchange / Ticker: TSX:AII
Jurisdiction: South Korea
Primary Commodity: Tungsten
Website: https://almonty.com

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