Centerra Gold Inc.

Name: CG Verdict Framework Scorecard — WATCH
Item: Centerra Gold Inc.
Rating: 16
Author: Mining Stock Report

WATCH

TSX · Gold · Scored Jun 6, 2026

Composite Score 16/25

Management Skin-in-the-Game

3/5

Centerra Gold's management team navigated one of the most disruptive events in recent Canadian mining history: the Kyrgyz government's 2021 forced nationalization of the Kumtor mine, which had been generating the majority of the company's cash flow. Management executed a settlement with the Kyrgyz Republic, retained the Mount Milligan and Öksüt assets, and has been rebuilding the portfolio from a strengthened balance sheet position. Current leadership is focused on organic growth at Mount Milligan through mine-life extension work and on disciplined capital allocation. The challenge going forward is replacing Kumtor's scale through either organic development (Goldfield Project in Nevada, Kemess in BC) or M&A. Score 3 reflects demonstrated resilience through the expropriation crisis but an incomplete track record in executing the rebuilding phase.

Project Geology Quality

3/5

Mount Milligan (BC) is a Tier 1-scale copper-gold porphyry and one of Canada's most significant gold-copper mines. From the extracted technical report (dated 2026-03-04): Indicated resource 130 Mt at the grades shown (0.32 Cu, 1.14 Au, 0.16 Ag columns per extracted table row) — contained 1,333 / 4,769 / 454 units; Inferred resource 94 Mt at 0.30 / 1.02 / 0.14 — contained 905 / 3,079 / 296. No measured resource or reserve classification reported in the extracted filing. Öksüt (Turkey) is a smaller high-grade heap-leach gold operation. Goldfield Project (Nevada) and Kemess (BC) are development-stage assets. The portfolio is of high geological quality at Mount Milligan but the combined scale is substantially smaller than pre-Kumtor Centerra. Score 3 reflects Mount Milligan's quality offset by reduced portfolio breadth and the absence of reserve classification in the extracted data.

Capital Structure Health

4/5

Exceptional capital structure: 198,595,055 shares issued and outstanding; 201,036,008 fully diluted (per interim MD&A dated 2026-04-29). Options outstanding: 1,749,974 (strike price and expiry not extracted from the MD&A). RSUs outstanding: 690,979 (not included in share_instruments — RSU type is outside the scorecard importer schema). No warrants, no flow-through financing detected. Total dilution of approximately 1.2% of outstanding shares is standout discipline for a mid-tier producer — most peers carry warrants or larger option programs. The balance sheet is healthy with significant cash from the Kumtor settlement proceeds, providing M&A optionality and a buffer against commodity price volatility. Score 4 reflects one of the cleanest capital structures in the TSX gold producer peer group.

Catalyst Proximity

3/5

Mount Milligan mine-life extension studies and potential reserve additions through infill and extensional drilling are the primary geological catalysts — a positive reserve update would materially improve the stock's NAV. Öksüt continued ramp-up and throughput optimization provides operational upside. M&A is a binary catalyst: an accretive acquisition of a producing or near-production asset could significantly re-rate the stock given Centerra's cash position and clean balance sheet; a value-destructive deal would be penalized. Goldfield Project development decision (Nevada) is a medium-term catalyst. Score 3 reflects real but not imminent near-term catalysts, with the M&A option being the highest-impact unpredictable outcome.

Comparable Acquisition Value

3/5

Centerra trades at a discount to pure-play gold producer NAV peers partly because of the copper component at Mount Milligan (investors tend to apply a copper-gold blended multiple lower than pure-gold), and partly due to a residual Kumtor discount from investors who have not yet re-rated the story post-settlement. Peer comparison: Alamos Gold, OceanaGold, and Eldorado Gold occupy similar market cap ranges and provide the most relevant NAV comp set. Centerra's strong balance sheet and Mount Milligan's long mine life provide a meaningful NAV floor. Turkish jurisdiction risk at Öksüt applies a modest discount to that asset's contribution. At current gold prices, the stock offers a blend of asset value and M&A optionality that is not fully priced. Score 3 reflects reasonable but not deep-discount positioning.

Analyst Summary

Centerra Gold is a post-expropriation recovery story built around Mount Milligan, one of Canada's premier copper-gold porphyry operations. The balance sheet is exceptional — only 1.2% dilution from all instruments on 198.5M shares, with meaningful cash from the Kumtor settlement — and management has demonstrated the financial discipline to avoid value-destructive moves during the rebuilding period. Mount Milligan's long mine life and resource scale provide a durable NAV floor. The stock remains at a discount to NAV peers because Kumtor's loss has not been replaced at scale, Öksüt carries Turkish operational risk, and there is no near-term reserve-growth catalyst confirmed. Watch for a mine-life extension reserve update at Mount Milligan and any M&A announcement, either of which could shift this to a BUY. The clean capital structure and strong balance sheet provide downside protection while investors wait.

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Cap Table & Overhang Analysis at C$21.3100

Basic Shares

198,595,055

TSM Diluted (at scoring)

198,595,055

Net New Shares

Dilution %

0.0%

Options outstanding

1,749,974

ITM at scoring price	0
Cash from full ITM exercise	C$0
Reported fully diluted	201,036,008

Dilution Sensitivity

Scenario	Price	TSM Diluted	Dilution %
0.5x	C$10.6550	198,595,055	0.0%
1.0x scoring	C$21.3100	198,595,055	0.0%
1.5x	C$31.9650	198,595,055	0.0%
2.0x	C$42.6200	198,595,055	0.0%
3.0x	C$63.9300	198,595,055	0.0%

Treasury Stock Method: at each scenario price, in-the-money warrants and options are assumed exercised, with proceeds applied to repurchase shares at that same price. Net new shares = ITM count minus repurchased shares. Dilution % is net new shares as a percent of basic. Near-expiry threshold is 12 months from the scoring date.

Resources & Reserves

Indicated Indicated 130 0.32 1.14 0.16 1,333 4,769 454

Inferred Inferred 94 0.30 1.02 0.14 905 3,079 296

Share Structure

Issued & Outstanding 198,595,055

Fully Diluted 201,036,008

Warrants & Options

Type	Count	Strike	Expiry
Option	1,749,974	—	—
Summary count only — strike/expiry not extracted from MD&A

Company

Exchange / Ticker: TSX:CG
Jurisdiction: British Columbia
Primary Commodity: Gold
Website: https://www.centerragold.com

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