Ecuador

High Risk

Ecuador · Country · Last assessed Apr 2026

Composite Score 12/25

Higher = lower risk. 22–25 LOW · 18–21 MODERATE · 13–17 ELEVATED · 8–12 HIGH · 5–7 EXTREME.

Permitting Timeline & Predictability

2/5

Process exists but regularly blocked by referendums and constitutional challenges.

Fiscal Regime Stability

3/5

Royalty regime stable; windfall provisions occasionally proposed.

Political & Security Risk

2/5

High political instability; security situation deteriorated sharply 2023–2024.

Infrastructure & Power

3/5

Adequate around Andean districts; coastal and Amazon regions vary.

Indigenous, Community & ESG

2/5

Indigenous and community consultation processes frequently weaponised; referendums have blocked permitted projects.

Assessment Summary

Ecuador has world-class porphyry copper-gold endowment along the Andean cordillera but the country has become one of the highest-risk Latin American mining jurisdictions. The 2023 Yasuní referendum (oil) and prior local-level mining referendums have demonstrated that fully permitted projects can be retroactively blocked through plebiscite mechanisms.

The 2023–2024 deterioration in the country's security situation, with cartel violence reaching unprecedented levels, has added a material physical-security dimension to the country risk.

Jurisdiction risk is one input — geology, capital structure, and management still matter. See the Verdict Framework for full company scorecards.