Mali

Extreme Risk

Mali · Country · Last assessed Apr 2026

Composite Score 5/25

Higher = lower risk. 22–25 LOW · 18–21 MODERATE · 13–17 ELEVATED · 8–12 HIGH · 5–7 EXTREME.

Permitting Timeline & Predictability

1/5

Effectively frozen under junta; new mining code 2023 retroactively raised state participation.

Fiscal Regime Stability

1/5

2023 mining code increased state stake to 30% with retroactive application; tax disputes ongoing.

Political & Security Risk

1/5

Military junta in power since 2021; suspended ECOWAS membership; Russian mercenary presence.

Infrastructure & Power

1/5

Limited; transport via Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal corridors.

Indigenous, Community & ESG

1/5

Active jihadist insurgency in northern and central regions creates physical security risk.

Assessment Summary

Mali was for two decades one of West Africa's premier gold districts and remains one of the continent's most prospective. The post-2021 deterioration has been severe: a military junta has consolidated power, ECOWAS membership has been suspended, and Wagner / Africa Corps Russian mercenary forces are deployed against jihadist insurgents across much of the country.

The 2023 mining code raised state participation to 30% with retroactive provisions, leading to active disputes with Barrick (Loulo-Gounkoto), Resolute, and Hummingbird. Capital is exiting the jurisdiction. For new investment, Mali is currently uninvestable for most institutional capital.

Jurisdiction risk is one input — geology, capital structure, and management still matter. See the Verdict Framework for full company scorecards.