Mongolia

High Risk

Mongolia · Country · Last assessed Apr 2026

Composite Score 12/25

Higher = lower risk. 22–25 LOW · 18–21 MODERATE · 13–17 ELEVATED · 8–12 HIGH · 5–7 EXTREME.

Permitting Timeline & Predictability

2/5

Process exists but politically charged for major projects.

Fiscal Regime Stability

2/5

Oyu Tolgoi renegotiations set precedent for unilateral fiscal changes on flagship projects.

Political & Security Risk

3/5

Democratic but volatile; mining policy has shifted multiple times.

Infrastructure & Power

2/5

Limited; coal/copper exports depend on Chinese-border logistics.

Indigenous, Community & ESG

3/5

Herder community concerns around water and land use a recurring friction point.

Assessment Summary

Mongolia hosts the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold complex and significant coal endowment. The country is a functioning democracy and the technical regulator is capable, but the multi-decade saga around Oyu Tolgoi's fiscal structure illustrates that flagship projects in Mongolia face ongoing political renegotiation pressure.

Infrastructure is heavily oriented around the Chinese border (the dominant export market for both copper and coal) which creates concentrated logistical exposure. For deposits not located near existing transport corridors, capex requirements are high.

Jurisdiction risk is one input — geology, capital structure, and management still matter. See the Verdict Framework for full company scorecards.