Tanzania

High Risk

Tanzania · Country · Last assessed Apr 2026

Composite Score 11/25

Higher = lower risk. 22–25 LOW · 18–21 MODERATE · 13–17 ELEVATED · 8–12 HIGH · 5–7 EXTREME.

Permitting Timeline & Predictability

2/5

Workable; previous high-friction era under Magufuli largely behind.

Fiscal Regime Stability

2/5

Framework agreements with Barrick set precedent; royalty/tax disputes still possible.

Political & Security Risk

3/5

Stable but state-led economic agenda intervenes in mining periodically.

Infrastructure & Power

2/5

Adequate in Mwanza/Geita gold belt; rural projects vary.

Indigenous, Community & ESG

2/5

Established consultation framework but artisanal mining tensions persist.

Assessment Summary

Tanzania has a meaningful gold endowment around Lake Victoria (Geita, Bulyanhulu, North Mara) and significant nickel and rare-earth potential. The Magufuli-era confrontations with Barrick and Acacia were eventually resolved but established a precedent that the state will intervene in royalty and tax structures unilaterally when politically convenient.

The current operating environment is more constructive but the structural risk that the Magufuli template returns under future leadership remains a real consideration for long-dated investments.

Jurisdiction risk is one input — geology, capital structure, and management still matter. See the Verdict Framework for full company scorecards.