Guerrero

High Risk

Mexico · State · Last assessed Apr 2026

Composite Score 8/25

Higher = lower risk. 22–25 LOW · 18–21 MODERATE · 13–17 ELEVATED · 8–12 HIGH · 5–7 EXTREME.

Permitting Timeline & Predictability

2/5

Federal regime applies; project-level disputes routinely block development.

Fiscal Regime Stability

2/5

Federal royalty regime; community-level shakedown costs significant.

Political & Security Risk

1/5

Effectively cartel-controlled in rural mining districts; rule of law absent in many areas.

Infrastructure & Power

2/5

Limited; many mining districts accessible only via roads under cartel checkpoints.

Indigenous, Community & ESG

1/5

Active armed blockades; community 'consultations' often coerced by armed groups.

Assessment Summary

Guerrero hosts Mexico's largest open-pit gold mine (Los Filos) and significant other gold endowment, but is one of the highest-risk operating environments in the Western Hemisphere. Cartel groups effectively control rural areas across much of the state; armed blockades, extortion of operations and contractors, and kidnapping of personnel are recurring features.

Equinox Gold's multi-month 2023 blockade of Los Filos illustrated how community-level disputes can shut down a major operation even after federal and state permits are in place. The jurisdiction is investable only with very high country-risk premiums and significant security infrastructure.

Other Mexico Jurisdictions

Chihuahua Elevated Risk
Durango High Risk
Oaxaca High Risk
San Luis Potosí Elevated Risk
Sinaloa High Risk
Sonora Elevated Risk
Zacatecas Elevated Risk

Jurisdiction risk is one input — geology, capital structure, and management still matter. See the Verdict Framework for full company scorecards.