Gold $4,629.60/oz (+1.86%) | Silver $73.89/oz (+3.24%) | Copper $5.99/lb (+1.89%) Updated 37 minutes ago

Sonora

Elevated Risk

Mexico · State · Last assessed Apr 2026

Composite Score 15/25

Higher = lower risk. 22–25 LOW · 18–21 MODERATE · 13–17 ELEVATED · 8–12 HIGH · 5–7 EXTREME.

Permitting Timeline & Predictability
2/5
Federal open-pit ban applies; state cooperation historically constructive on existing operations.
Fiscal Regime Stability
2/5
Federal royalty regime; no state-level surprises in recent cycles.
Political & Security Risk
3/5
Mining historically core to state economy; Morena state government less openly hostile than federal.
Infrastructure & Power
5/5
Excellent — US border, deep highway and rail network, established service industry around Hermosillo.
Indigenous, Community & ESG
3/5
Mostly constructive; Yaqui and other indigenous consultation issues at specific sites.
Assessment Summary

Sonora is Mexico's largest mining state by output and hosts the country's most significant copper, gold, and silver districts (Cananea, Buenavista, La Herradura, Mulatos, Pinos Altos). The state borders Arizona and benefits from excellent transport, power, and labour-market infrastructure. Mining is historically central to state identity and politics, and state-level treatment of operating mines has been more constructive than the federal rhetoric suggests.

The federal open-pit moratorium and concession freeze still apply — Sonora cannot insulate developers from those constraints — but for operating mines and projects already permitted, Sonora is the lowest-friction Mexican jurisdiction. Cartel violence has crept north over the past five years but remains less acute than in Sinaloa or Guerrero.

Other Mexico Jurisdictions

Jurisdiction risk is one input — geology, capital structure, and management still matter. See the Verdict Framework for full company scorecards.

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